'We're back baby': What last night's byelections mean for each party
And PC survey says...
ABOVE THE FOLD
ABOUT LAST NIGHT — “We’re back baby,” interim Liberal leader JOHN FRASER told the crowd at KAREN McCRIMMON’s post-byelection victory party at the local legion in Kanata-Carleton — a fitting venue for the Armed Forces veteran to celebrate her poaching a riding that has never not been PC in its current form.
Indeed, with ANDREA HAZELL hanging on to Scarborough-Guildwood — albeit with a smaller vote share, but despite a full-cylinder approach from PC front-benchers — the leader-less Liberals are feeling renewed energy.
Here’s how each of the parties fared in last night’s back-to-back byelections:
For the Liberals: It’s a good morning. In Kanata-Carleton, McCrimmon, the former MP for the riding, came out on top over the incumbent PCs’ SEAN WEBSTER, a lobbyist. While McCrimmon had the Tories shaking in their boots, she beat out Webster by a relatively slim margin of 651 votes.
Over in Guildwood, Hazell held on to the Liberal stronghold over the PCs heavyweight contender GARY CRAWFORD (the former Toronto councillor and budget chief who will have a soft and lucrative landing anyway). That’s despite a major door-knocking effort by Tory ministers, including Premier DOUG FORD himself, robocalls from ex-mayor JOHN TORY, and the PCs making it rain funding announcements in the neighbourhood.
Still, Crawford gave Hazell a run for her money: She locked in about 36 per cent of the vote, which is 10 points behind what MITZIE HUNTER came away with last June. Crawford took 29 per cent. That said, it’s a summer byelection — when turnout tends to be lower. Also: Scarborough may be feeling electoral fatigue given they’ve gone to the polls often in recent months.
Why it matters: The Grits may have been relegated to third place, but this could signal that they’re clawing their way back — especially with a high-profile leadership contest that goes down December 2.
In the House, that brings the Grits to nine seats — still three shy of recognized party status, and all the added resources and legislative time that comes with it.
Get to know the newest MPPs at the Park with my one-on-ones with Hazell and McCrimmon.
For the PCs: It’s a major blow. They lost what was considered a safe bastion in the capital, and, despite their best efforts, failed to nab another Scarborough spot.
So, what went wrong? I’ve confirmed with federal Tory sources that the Conservatives in Ottawa didn’t deploy resources — including 80 interns — to get out the PC vote in the capital because they were salty over the fact their provincial cousins didn’t do much to help them secure the recent Oxford byelection.
Not helping matters is the fact that many folks in Ottawa feel slighted by the Ford government, not least because of a lack of action during the so-called Freedom Convoy.
In their own words: At his afterparty at the Olde Stone Cottage Pub on Kingston Road, Crawford congratulated Hazell, thanked Ford, and shouted-out his home turf. “Scarborough is my home. This is where my wife and I chose to raise our family. I am proud to have represented this community for over 12 years at City Hall. Our future is bright.”
Over at the The Burbs Pub in Kanata, Webster echoed the sentiments: “I wish to thank my supporters and volunteers, who have stood with me throughout this campaign. Together, we knocked on thousands of doors and met so many amazing people. This has been the experience of a lifetime…I know that our province’s best days are ahead.”
For the NDP: It was a solid effort — which is salt in the wounds of the PCs in particular, who have benefitted electorally from vote-splitting between the NDP and Grits.
A close third: In Scarborough-Guildwood, late-in-the-game contender THADSHA NAVANEETHAN claimed 26 per cent — up 10 points compared to their performance in the general last June. Over in Kanata-Carleton, health lab tech and labour activist MELISSA COENRAAD brought in about 29 per cent of the vote, three points behind Webster.
For the Greens: Woof. The typically fourth-place party has punched above its weight with captain MIKE SCHREINER — but the byelections weren’t so pretty. Green STEVEN WARREN finished fifth in Kanata, behind the Tory spinoff New Blues, with 1.37 per cent, while TARA McMAHON finished sixth in Guildwood, lagging the New Blues and the anti-sex ed party with a paltry 0.95 per cent of the vote.
Don’t forget: A third byelection is coming to Kitchener Centre, to replace New Democrat LAURA MAE LINDO, who officially resigned July 13. The Premier has six months from then to set a date. Catch up on our exit interview, get the lay of the land, and meet the Green who’s pushing hard to poach the seat.
First in Observer — POLL WATCH — Campaign Research — helmed by the PCs pollster NICK KOUVALIS — was in the field this week gauging Ontarians on how they feel about political leaders and top issues.
Between the lines: It offers insight on where the Tories could take their agenda (or not) in the run-up to the next election — and who they see as their political competition.
I got my hands on the questions:
“Thinking about provincial politics…which party and leader would you most likely vote for if a provincial election were held tomorrow?
DOUG FORD and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
MARIT STILES and the Ontario New Democratic Party
BONNIE CROMBIE and the Ontario Liberal Party
MIKE SCHREINER and the Green Party of Ontario
Another party…
“Regardless of how you may have voted in the past, how would you rate each of these leaders overall? Would you rate them as poor, fair good or excellent?
Ontario Liberal Party leadership candidate BONNIE CROMBIE
Federal Conservative Party Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE
Premier DOUG FORD
Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU
“When you think about the next 2 or 3 years in Ontario (2023-2026), which of the following is most important and which is least important for the provincial government to focus on?” [Rank the following]:
Ban all guns and rifles
Providing enough affordable child care spaces for families
Keeping taxes low
Able to get things done
Looking out for the citizens, not the special interests
Being accountable to citizens
Supporting and building the resource sector (mining, forestry, natural gas, etc.) —
Making housing more affordable by building many more houses (increase the supply)
Make homes more affordable with government money (subsidies and programs designed to lower the cost of renting)
Bringing more immigrants to Ontario
Build more safe injection sites to help address drug use and drug addictions
Improving long term care and housing conditions for seniors
Managing the government of Ontario’s finances much better (deficits, debt, waste management and efficiency)
Improving the health care system
Being honest and acting with integrity
Supporting small businesses
Hire more police officers to fight crime
Improving the education system
Working closely and cooperatively with the federal government
Protecting taxpayers’ money
Providing enough affordable childcare spaces for families
Build more free housing and shelters for homeless people
Working closely and cooperatively with city/municipal governments
Provide more government support for seniors
Creating jobs
Rebuilding the economy
Get a lot tougher on violent crimes and violent criminals
Lower taxes
Building and repairing transit systems (building subways/high-speed rail, improving public transit and GO Transit)
Managing the environment overall and environmentally sensitive lands to make it cleaner and better for people
Provide more government support for people with disabilities
Supporting a carbon tax to address climate change and global warming
Build more safe injection sites to help address drug use and drug addictions
Repairing and building new infrastructure
The government follows through on its commitments/keeps promises
Invest heavily into mental health programs, staffing and support
Build more free housing and shelters for homeless people
HAPPENING TODAY
VICTORY LAP — 12 p.m.: Interim Liberal leader JOHN FRASER debuts MPP-elects ANDREA HAZELL and KAREN McCRIMMON in the Media Studio.
2 p.m.: Long-Term Care Minister PAUL CALANDRA is up in Southampton for — you guessed it — another announcement about new beds.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 9 a.m.: The PCs are back on the fundraising circuit with a breakfast in Mississauga for $1,000-a-pop. There’s no lineup listed, but in the past, that has meant Premier DOUG FORD will make a cameo. Invite.
SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION — 7:30 a.m.: I’ll break down the byelections with GREG BRADY on am640. Tune in!
CLIPPINGS
— HOW HOUSING STACKS UP: Wondering how each city is doing on hitting provincial targets for building new homes? CBC crunches the numbers: “A year and a half into the Ford government's decade-long housing plan, most cities aren't even close to pace.”
— PRIVATE NURSING: “The amount of money Ontario hospitals pay private nursing agencies has more than quadrupled since the first year of the pandemic, with agencies charging an average of $140 an hour for a registered nurse, according to new data provided exclusively to The Globe and Mail.”
SPOTTED: Video renderings of the new Ontario Line trains.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — STAFFING UP — MAURO BARONE has signed on to Tourism Minister NEIL LUMSDEN’s office as a policy adviser on the Sport and Recreation file.
TRANSITION — BHAVKIRAT GILL has joined Treasury Board President PRABMEET SARKARIA’s team as a policy adviser. Gill was previously executive assistant to Energy Minister TODD SMITH.
ON THE CIVIL SERVICE SIDE — In the Health Ministry, ALISON BLAIR is now associate deputy minister on health integration and partnerships. She was previously ADM on pandemic response and recovery.
LOBBYING DISPATCH
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Krystle Caputo, ONpoint Strategy Group: Regional Municipality of York
Faye Roberts, Scout Communications: Ontario Produce Marketing Association
Yash Dogra, NATIONAL Public Relations: OVH Groupe SAS
Peter Van Loan, Aird & Berlis: Laurier-Paradise CC 375 Kennedy
Garry Keller, StrategyCorp: Flair Airlines Ltd.
Jordon Daniels, StrategyCorp: Choice Properties Limited Partnership
In-house organizations: Canadian Renewable Energy Association — Animal Justice — WoodGreen Community Services — Samuel Sarick Limited.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY ON SATURDAY: Former Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON…the late ex-premier BILL DAVIS.
⌛COUNTDOWN: T-minus 59 days until the House reconvenes…39 days to sign up for the Liberal leadership race…127 days until the Liberal leadership contest.