What to expect at the PC caucus retreat
And survey says: Teflon Premier Ford is sitting pretty, anti-Crombie attack ads are working, Stiles is a mystery
ABOVE THE FOLD
First in Observer — PRIMER: PC CAUCUS RETREAT — When DOUG FORD’s Tories descend on Blue Mountain next week, the vibe will be much more positive than the last time around.
That’s because many PC MPPs are feeling like they’ve turned a corner after a rough year in which the Greenbelt scandal, health-care woes and more plagued the government. (In spite of it all, polling suggests the same — more on that momentarily.)
Now, they’re gearing up to full-on campaign mode and readying the troops for what could be a snap vote next spring.
One GTA MPP agreed the mood is lighter compared to last summer’s retreat in Niagara Falls, when Ford announced his notorious Greenbelt reversal. Then there was a steady string of policy backtracks. “It was all doom and gloom [but] we’ve come out of it stronger,” the MPP insisted. “There’s a lot on the line in this election and we need to be ready.”
The next election, whenever it is, will be a hot topic at the retreat. MPPs will hear from pollster NICK KOUVALIS, campaign strategist KORY TENEYCKE, PC Party prez MICHAEL DIAMOND, fundraiser-in-chief TONY MIELE and the party’s executive director DAVID GARLAND, among others.
They’re expected to talk about the party’s fundraising arsenal, candidate nominations, key ridings, and everything else that matters in campaign times.
One 905-area MPP is looking forward to hearing more about how the PCs are faring in Mississauga, especially now that former popular mayor BONNIE CROMBIE is leading the Liberals. That region, currently dominated by the PCs, was a big point of discussion at the Tories get-together earlier this year, so expect it to come up again next week. Same goes for Crombie, the PCs public enemy No. 1.
Ditto Ottawa. A couple of Tory organizers are also hoping their MPPs glean some intel on the capital region, where the PCs have been losing their grip.
Throw it on the pile: The retreat’s election-heavy theme is yet another sign of a possible snap vote. The PCs are also ramping up their candidate nominations process (scooped here) and hosting a big campaign training sesh in October (scooped here).
BRIAN SAUNDERSON tells me he’s excited to play host to his fellow MPPs when they descend on his riding next week. “I am looking forward to the retreat to show off the beautiful environs and diverse economy of Simcoe-Grey.”
POLL WATCH — DOUG FORD is hanging on to his title as Teflon Premier — but he’s not as popular as his PC crew.
That’s the upshot from Liaison Strategies’ latest public-opinion survey that suggests the Tories would score another majority government if an election were held today.
Horse race: Among decided and leaning voters, 40 per cent would cast their ballots for the PCs, while 27 per cent would vote Liberal, 21 per cent would pick the NDP, six per cent like the Greens and six per cent want an alternative party.
Despite a year of policy backtracks, most notoriously on the Greenbelt, Ford and the Tories have consistently come out on top in the polls.
But, and it’s a biggie: Regional cracks persist. “The PCs are doing well in most of Ontario, though they are in a statistical tie for first in the North, Toronto and South Central. That being said, their Toronto numbers are an improvement from where we have found them in the past few months and they are leading in the 905,” said Liaison’s pollster-in-chief DAVID VALENTIN.
Silver lining: “There is relatively little good news for the NDP and Liberals here. The NDP can take solace that they are in a strong second in South Central (Hamilton and Niagara) and the Liberals are still marginally leading in Toronto.”
Love them or hate them: When Liaison gauged how respondents feel about the party leaders themselves, the race got a lot tighter.
Ford is less popular than his party overall. A whopping 65 per cent said they have an “unfavourable” view of Ford, compared to 28 per cent who see him favourably.
Almost as many people like MARIT STILES as they do dislike her — the Oppo NDP Leader netted 24 per cent approval and 22 per cent disapproval, but she doesn’t even register on most folks’ radars: 54 per cent said they’re either “not sure” or are “not familiar with” Stiles.
BONNIE CROMBIE — the target of the Tories multi-million-dollar attack ads — is rubbing 42 per cent of folks the wrong way, while 27 per cent see her in a good light.
But perhaps all publicity is good publicity? People are more familiar with the third-place Liberal captain than they are with the actual Official Opposition leader — just 36 per cent aren’t sure or don’t know about Crombie.
The Greens’ MIKE SCHREINER is also dealing with the obscurity factor. While 23 per cent marked him as favourable and 19 per cent as unfavourable, 58 per cent don’t know enough to make up their mind.
It’s early days yet: Valentin expects those numbers to change when the election is called, early or otherwise, as many voters will get familiar with the leaders and follow provincial politics closely.
Methodology: Liaison was in the field August 19 to 20 and surveyed 1,300 via Interactive Voice Recording. The poll is considered accurate within 2.71 percentage points.
HAPPENING TODAY
9:30 a.m.: JILL DUNLOP debuts in her first announcement as Education Minister in Caledon.
9:30 a.m.: Back-to-back announcements from Long-Term Care Minister NATALIA KUSENDOVA-BASHTA, starting in Newmarket. At 11:30 a.m.: She heads to Ajax.
FUNDRAISING WATCH — 6 p.m.: A relatively modest fundraiser for the PCs, who have been going hard with the big-ticket events: VIJAY THANIGASALAM will headline PATRICE BARNES’s $150-a-plate shindig in Ajax. Invite.
ON THE COMMITTEE CIRCUIT
10 a.m.: Justice Policy (minus GOLDIE GHAMARI) continues public hearings for its summer study on intimate partner violence. On the witness roster: Kids Help Phone, Nishnawbe-Aski Legal Services Corporation, SafeTO, and, notably: a Crown attorney focused on prosecutions involving violence against women and children. Full lineup.
CLIPPINGS
— CHARGED UP: “Certain solar farms will be banned on prime agricultural land in Ontario as the province expands energy production to meet demand in the coming decades, Energy Minister STEPHEN LECCE said Wednesday.”
More from the Canadian Press: “Ontario is looking to add some 5,000 megawatts of energy to the grid, with Lecce directing the Independent Electricity System Operator to secure ‘technology agnostic’ energy resources. That means the province will use a mix of natural gas, hydroelectric, renewables, nuclear and biomass energy sources, he said. But the province is making efforts to protect key agricultural areas.”
Spotted at the announcement: Horses!
— THEY’RE IN: Global News follows my scoop on the PCs nomination process ramping up, with Ministers STEPHEN LECCE (King-Vaughan) and ROB FLACK (Elgin-Middlesex-London) confirming they’re in for the next election, whenever it is.
— PREMATURE PEDDLERS: “An Etobicoke convenience store was allegedly caught selling alcohol several weeks before Ontario’s expanded liquor retails sales kick in” on September 5. Details from the Toronto Sun.
— CHEESED OFF: “A family-run cheese farm in Southern Ontario’s Wilmot Township is facing pressure from the regional government to sell its land — all for a project the government won’t even disclose information on….If the van Bergeiks refuse, the land could be expropriated, leaving their family farm — and their way of life — under severe threat.” The National Observer has the story.
— WHAT HAPPENED TO NEVEAH? MONIQUE TAYLOR — the NDP’s critic on Children’s Services whose passionate line of questioning tends to get her in trouble with the Speaker in the House — is calling for a public inquiry into the heartbreaking case of NEVEAH, the little girl found dead in a dumpster. While Premier DOUG FORD has called for a full audit of the child welfare system as it grapples with budget shortfalls and job cuts, Taylor says she’s got little faith the government will do what’s needed to keep kids safe.
Taylor tells me: “You’ve been around a long time, right? You’ve seen Question Period. You’ve seen me go after Minister [MICHAEL] PARSA. Every single time, the tagline is: ‘No child will ever be left behind.’ Like, that’s heartbreaking. This is not a game of politics — this is real life. These are real children, real families who are affected. Neveah’s story is heartbreaking, but there’s hundreds of families out there that are in stress, that are looking for services they can’t get, and they’re giving their kids up to the Children’s Aid Society because of that. And yet, Children’s Aid doesn’t have the capacity to be able to manage it. So we have this perfect storm happening where more kids are at risk. So when you ask me if I trust the government to do the right thing — absolutely not.”
— STRONG MAYOR FLEX: Mississauga Mayor CAROLYN PARRISH continues to use her FORD-given strong mayor powers for hiring and firing. She’s appointed two permanent people — the city’s chief administrative officer and solicitor — following four interim gigs. Who’s who via the Mississauga News.
— FIRE FRED: “Dozens of protesters staged a demonstration in front of a Canadian Union of Public Employees office north of Toronto on Tuesday to demand the resignation of FRED HAHN over an antisemitic video the national vice president shared on social media.” The National Post reports.
— BYELECTION GOODY: The PCs are celebrating the completion of improvements to the Skyway Bridge in Bay of Quinte — byelection territory — which connects Highway 401 to Prince Edward County.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
First in Observer — PROMOTION — BRIAN HAO is now manager of stakeholder relations and senior policy adviser to Infrastructure Minister KINGA SURMA.
TRANSITION — Indigenous Affairs Minister GREG RICKFORD has poached a stakeholder and partner relations adviser from Mental Health Minister MICHAEL TIBOLLO: JENNA DePAIVA.
MASS EXODUS — In Small Biz Minister NINA TANGRI’s office: CASSANDRA BIANCHI is coming over from RUDY CUZZETTO’s team to take on operations. LOVEPREET SAHOTA, who hails from Environment, is now comms and issues adviser.
It comes after a big turnover: Tangri’s lost PAUL SZACHLEWICZ, who is now working for the City of Burlington, and CATHERINE RUTLEDGE, who’s doing consulting at CW Group.
Sticking around is VONNY SWEETLAND, Tangri’s D-comms, and ANUSHKA TIWARI, executive assistant.
Don’t forget: I previously told you that Tangri’s new chief of staff is KOSTA ZOES, who took up the mantle from ALEXANDRA HOENE, who’s now at Loyalist Public Affairs. JEROME BENNETT has also moved on to Public and Business Service Delivery Minister TODD McCARTHY’s camp. Meet the rest of the chiefs.
CANDIDATE TRACKER I — Rounding out the ticket for the snap byelection in Bay of Quinte is LORI BORTHWICK for the Greens.
Per the party’s bio: “Lori has called the Bay of Quinte home since 1989. She began her career as a respiratory therapist at the Belleville General Hospital, where she worked for over 30 years.”
The competition: Borthwick will square off with the PCs TYLER ALLSOPP, a Belleville councillor; NDPer AMANDA ROBERTSON, a school board trustee; and the Grits’ SEAN KELLY, radio host and councillor. Get the lay of the land.
CANDIDATE TRACKER II — JAWAD HAROON is eyeing a run for the Liberals in PC-held Mississauga-Malton. Haroon, an engineer and local party organizer, has already launched a website. (Update: This newsletter was updated to reflect that while Haroon’s donation page is live, he’s not currently soliciting donations). And the rest.
LOBBYING DISPATCH
NAMED AND SHAMED — A lawyer for a (now-moot) Greenbelt developer is being called out by Integrity Commish J. DAVID WAKE for breaking lobbying rules and failing to register with his office.
To wit: KATARZYNA SLIWA, a lawyer at Denton’s who represented SHAKIR REHMATULLAH, the developer who went on that infamous Vegas trip, was also mentioned in Wake’s 2023 bombshell report for sending letters to government officials, including ex-Housing chief RYAN AMATO, which she did without registering.
That’s a no-no under the law.
Said Wake: “One letter requested the amendment of the regulation then establishing the Greenbelt Area boundaries on behalf of one client, and the other requested three specific amendments to a Government of Ontario policy, specifically the Greenbelt Plan, on behalf of two clients…Ms. Sliwa’s failure to register undermines the Lobbyists Registration Act’s purpose of transparency.”
It’s rain on the PCs parade: While the Tories may be feeling good ahead of next week’s caucus retreat, Wake’s notice of non-compliance is a bit of a damper, reminding them that there is an RCMP investigation hanging over their heads.
Here are the new, renewed and amended registrations over the past 24 hours:
Ralph Palumbo, The Hillcrest Consulting Group: Used Car Dealers Association of Ontario
Kyle Sholes, StrategyCorp: Strongest Families Institute
Emily Gilroy, Crestview Strategy: Millwright Regional Council
Fernando Minna, Capital Hill Group: Kraken
Aaron Scheewe, The Capital Hill Group: Benchmark Corp, Access Copyright, VidCruiter
Carlo Oliviero, Edelman Global Advisory: Colas Canada Inc.
Dan Mader, Loyalist Public Affairs: Accenture Inc.
Daniel Pascucci, Rubicon Strategy: Canadian Niagara Hotels Inc.
Yash Dogra, National Public Relations: Ferring Pharmaceuticals Canada
Jonathan Rose, Policy Concepts: Responsible Gambling Council
Ryan Cole, Policy Concepts: Toronto (Scarborough Junction) Limited Partnership
Lee Greenberg, Policy Concepts: ComputerTalk Technology Inc
Andrew Boddington, Policy Concepts: EllisDon
In-house organizations: Mattamy Homes Canada — Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
🥳 HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Liberal KAREN McCRIMMON (Kanata-Carleton).
🍽️ ON THE MENU: It’s Fish-and-Chips Thursday in the basement cafeteria.
⏳ COUNTDOWN: T-minus 6 days until the PC caucus retreat in Blue Mountain…22 days until the byelection in Bay of Quinte…23 days until the Liberal convention in London…34 days until the Plowing Match in Lindsay…54 days until the House reconvenes.